blueUkraine

© Vocalisation
The resistance

Wishful thinking has the upper hand in the battle to shape Western perceptions of the war in Ukraine.

Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from apprentice psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.

A more sober analysis shows that Russia may accept sought a knockout blow, but e'er had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.

The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine.

We must exist clear-eyed now that the state of war is underway. Still fifty-fifty the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy deject their judgement.

Just two days into Russia'due south invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to merits that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amoun ted to a serious setback. DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the majuscule had non fallen.

But U.S. leaders should accept learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Once once again, U.South. and Western officials are falling into the trap of declining to empathize the enemy and his objectives.

Map Ukraine

© Unknown
Russian invasion plan

Allegedly, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would collapse once Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the performance has failed because the Ukrainian government remains in place. Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the just plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to have the land past force if a swift decapitation strike fell curt. This kind of plan should exist familiar to Americans who call up the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the first hours of the state of war, the U.S. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' campaign in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein and other fundamental leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, simply the U.Southward. military was fully prepared to follow up with a basis assault.

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a full-calibration invasion, which Russian federation is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a time and resource consuming enterprise, and an operation of this telescopic isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Republic of belarus to Kyiv

Russian accelerate forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops outside of Kyiv since the start of the state of war. A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is just twenty miles north of Kyiv, and is likely assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front end, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed lxx miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital letter.

Ukraine map convoy

© AP

This is not a sign of a disorganized, poorly assembled, and failed offensive.

The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported past another Russian column, launched from the east in the vicinity of Kursk.

If this column can link up with Russian troops almost Kyiv, it will envelop Ukrainian forces in near of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the Ukrainian military machine of much needed soldiers and war material needed elsewhere, and cutting off the regime from 2 northern provinces.

Further due east, Russian forces take launched a broad offensive aimed at Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, which is now nether siege.

In the due south, Russian forces, supported past amphibious assaults from the Bounding main of Azov, have poured into Ukraine from Crimea.

On this front, Russian forces have branched out along two chief axes, one northwest forth the Pivdennyi Buh River, and another northeast forth the coast and inland towards the Donbas region, which Russian federation declared contained shortly before the invasion. If Russian columns from either southern front can link up with forces farther north, they would cutting off many Ukrainian troops from reinforcement — ane of the two columns has already avant-garde roughly 160 miles.

Russian generals have oft called to bypass towns and cities that are putting upward potent opposition and isolating them to bargain with later.

There are reports that Russian forces have escalated attacks on civilians, particularly in Kharkiv. At the moment, the artillery and rocket attacks there take been express, possibly to ship a bulletin to the citizens every bit a warning of what may come.

Putin appears to want to take Ukraine intact, but will non hesitate to increase the level of brutality if needed.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses. Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to exist that of a cold and computing antagonist. Dismissing his decision to invade Ukraine as a grade of madness is effectively an excuse to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's accelerate on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia past recognizing the Kremlin'southward puppet regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and S Ossetia.

Map Ukraine

© Unknown

In 2014, Putin occupied and annexed the strategic Ukrainian region of Crimea, which served every bit a launchpad for the electric current invasion. Putin paid little price for either activeness. The United States and Europe imposed limited sanctions but continued to appoint with him on the Iranian nuclear deal and other pinnacle bug.

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by forcefulness is in his and Russia's interest. He no doubt anticipated that the Westward would impose diplomatic and economical sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West'southward opposition, only it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless. Information technology remains to be seen if Putin'south plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that at that place was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day i.

Ukrainian troops are putting upwards a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages. It can, and has, attacked Ukraine from iii different directions. The Russian military holds a decided advantage in manpower, as well every bit air, naval and armor superiority. It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting lonely.

Believing Russia'south assault is going poorly may make us feel meliorate but is at odds with the facts.

We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

About the Writer:
Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Army and New Jersey National Guard